One of the most common debates in sports betting is whether it’s smarter to bet on favorites or take your chances with underdogs. Favorites have a higher probability of winning, but often with lower returns. Underdogs, while riskier, can offer much bigger payouts if they pull off an upset.
But is one strategy actually smarter than the other? The truth lies not in who’s expected to win, but how odds reflect true value. In this article, we’ll explore the pros and cons of betting on favorites and underdogs—and how sharp bettors use both strategies to their advantage.
What Defines a Favorite and an Underdog?
- A favorite is the team or player expected to win. Their odds are shorter (e.g., -150 or 1.67), meaning you need to bet more to win less.
- An underdog is expected to lose. Their odds are longer (e.g., +200 or 3.00), offering higher returns for a correct pick.
Bookmakers assign these odds based on performance data, betting trends, and market perception. But the listed odds don’t always reflect actual probability, which is where value betting comes in.
Pros and Cons of Betting on Favorites
✅ Pros
- Higher win probability: Favorites win more often, offering more consistent returns.
- Lower volatility: Better for conservative bankroll management.
- Confidence in the pick: Public and expert consensus often backs favorites.
❌ Cons
- Lower payouts: You risk more to win less.
- Overvalued odds: Favorites are often inflated due to public betting, reducing long-term value.
- Vulnerable to upsets: Surprises happen, and favorites don’t always deliver.
Verdict: Betting favorites may feel safer, but without value, you’re paying a premium for a win that doesn’t justify the risk.
Pros and Cons of Betting on Underdogs
✅ Pros
- Higher payouts: A successful underdog bet can multiply your bankroll.
- Market inefficiency: Underdogs are often underpriced due to public bias toward favorites.
- Good for long-term value betting: A few wins can cover multiple small losses.
❌ Cons
- Lower win rate: You’ll lose more bets than you win.
- Emotionally challenging: Long losing streaks are common.
- Requires sharp analysis: Not every underdog is worth backing.
Verdict: Underdogs offer better risk-to-reward potential, but demand more skill, patience, and tolerance for variance.
When to Bet the Favorite
Bet the favorite when:
- The odds still offer value compared to your calculated win probability.
- The team or athlete is objectively dominant, and the line is reasonable.
- The public isn’t heavily skewing the odds, keeping prices fair.
- It’s part of a low-risk parlay or teaser for value stacking.
Favorites are ideal for:
- Bankroll preservation
- Short-term bets
- Building consistent habits—but only when not overbet by the market
When to Bet the Underdog
Bet the underdog when:
- You believe the true odds are closer to 50/50, but the book offers +200 or better.
- The underdog has momentum, matchup edges, or hidden strengths overlooked by the public.
- Weather, injuries, or game context levels the playing field.
- The favorite may be overhyped or fatigued after recent wins.
Underdogs are great for:
- Value-driven bettors
- Long-term ROI-focused strategies
- Situational analysis (trap games, rivalry matches, overconfident favorites)
The Smarter Approach: Bet Value, Not Labels
Instead of categorizing bets as “favorite” or “underdog,” focus on expected value (EV). A favorite with odds that are too short offers negative EV. An underdog priced longer than their real chance of winning offers positive EV—even if they lose more often.
Smart bettors ask:
- What are the true probabilities?
- Are the odds misaligned with those probabilities?
- Is this a sustainable play in the long run?
It’s not about who’s likelier to win—it’s about whether the risk matches the reward.
Final Thoughts: Flexibility Beats Blind Loyalty
So, what’s smarter—betting the favorite or the underdog? The answer: neither, if you’re just choosing blindly. The smartest bettors evaluate every game independently, compare odds with real-world probabilities, and back whichever side offers value.
In sports betting, value trumps popularity. Whether it’s a dominant favorite or a live underdog, your goal should always be to make bets that offer long-term profitability—not just short-term excitement.